A Totally Implausible Scenario

Or… is it?

Let’s start with facts. Trump has been obsessed with oil for decades. He has repeatedly claimed that Venezuela “stole” American oil. He openly admires authoritarian strongmen—Hitler’s Germany, Putin’s Russia, Kim’s North Korea, Erdoğan’s Turkey, and Maduro’s Venezuela. His greed and paranoia are well documented.

Since day one of his second term, Trump has shifted U.S. military assets under the false claim of stopping fentanyl at sea. That claim has been debunked. Venezuela is not a meaningful source of fentanyl. The small fast boats he brags about destroying posed no real threat to the U.S. This was theater. All of it.

With his poll numbers collapsing, the economy stalled, and a steady drumbeat of ugly press about his associations and sexual behavior, Trump’s long-known personality disorders are driving the bus. A paranoid, authoritarian narcissist doesn’t self-reflect. He lashes out. He attacks.

Now Trump has taken Maduro and his wife into U.S. custody for trial. That alone will be a circus. Any defense will point directly at Trump’s pardons of drug traffickers and his selective “law and order” record. The hypocrisy will be impossible to ignore. The trial will be a spectacle by design.

So what’s the plan? Trump claims the U.S. will “temporarily” run Venezuela for the benefit of its people until elections can be held. History says otherwise. Temporary occupations rarely end cleanly. Ask Afghanistan. Local resistance, armed factions, and violence against U.S. troops are inevitable.

And then there’s oil. Trump’s fixation never changes. U.S. oil companies would control production. Oil revenue would supposedly “repay” the cost of invasion—whatever that means. But one thing is certain: Trump will use any opening to enrich himself and consolidate personal power.

Which brings us to the real question. Is Venezuela Trump’s exit strategy?

Trump knows he is failing at home. He is one of the most unpopular presidents in modern history. The 2026 midterms are coming, and he is likely to lose the House. Accountability is coming—impeachment, indictments, or both—no matter what the Supreme Court says.

So is it really implausible to think Trump would install loyalists in a puppet government? He is already setting up a “temporary” regime. What stops him from turning it into a safe haven if he’s indicted or removed from office?

Think about it.
I’m sure Trump already has.